Melbourne Cup horses, field, form guide: SIMON O’DONNELL is a racing commentator, the founder of Wingara Thoroughbreds and a former Australian international cricketer.
All the attention ahead of this year’s Melbourne Cup is on Peter Moody’s outstanding new superstar, Incentivise.
It looks like the gelding will start the race as the shortest-priced favourite since Phar Lap, which is quite incredible.
For me, though, there’s enough question marks around the horse that I’m happy to put my money elsewhere for the Cup.
The 57kg Incentivise will carry, coming off what has been a really testing preparation, and then drawing barrier 16… he’s a superstar if he can win, an absolute superstar.
I have that question mark. His rise has been so quick, and he’s deserved the rise after winning in particular the Turnbull and the Caulfield Cup. You can’t take better form into this race.
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But now carrying 57kg he’s got to measure up to the greats to win the Melbourne Cup, and I wonder if it’s a year too early for him to do that.
But nothing would surprise me, because he just keeps stepping up.
Here’s my take on every runner, and my race tips below.
1. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (barrier 2)
9yo gelding
Weight: 58kg
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Career: 35: 9-11-8
Last 6: x33912
Win range: 2414m – 3218m
Earnings: $5,682805
Odds: 12 / 3.60 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: On form he’s going better than when he came here and won this race last year. Rises 2.5kg, but jumps from a better barrier. Genuine contender.
2. INCENTIVISE (barrier 16)
5yo gelding
Weight: 57kg
Trainer: Peter Moody
Jockey: Brett Prebble
Career: 12: 9-0-0
Last 6: 111111
Win range: 1600m – 2500m
Earnings: $4,643,300
Odds: 2.80 / 1.70 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Extraordinary climb to success in his short career. Massive ask carrying 57kg to win this race. But as he’s shown thus far, nothing is beyond him.
3. SPANISH MISSION (barrier 14)
6yo stallion
Weight: 57kg
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Craig Williams
Career: 12: 6-2-2
Last 6: x25132
Win range: 2012m – 3600m
Earnings: $1,174,942
Odds: 10 / 3.25 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Class European act who hasn’t had an easy week leading in from a veterinary perspective. At his best will be very competitive, but a question mark lingers because of all the extra testing and procedures he has had to go through this week.
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4. VERRY ELLEEGANT (barrier 19)
6yo mare
Weight: 57kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: James McDonald
Career: 33: 14-7-3
Last 6: 2×2143
Win range: 1400m – 2400m
Earnings: $9,690,744
Odds: 16 / 4.40 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Superstar mare who acquitted herself very well in this race last year. Steps up 1.5kg as her Cox Plate run was solid. If she had drawn a better barrier she would be half the price she is now.
5. EXPLOSIVE JACK (barrier 4)
4yo stallion
Weight: 54kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Jockey: John Allen
Career: 12-5-1-2
Last 6: 13×950
Win range: 1600m – 2500m
Earnings: $1,814,730
Odds: 41 / 9.50 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Hasn’t hit top gear since a stunning three-year-old preparation. Should appreciate the journey, but would be a massive form reversal on what we have seen this time around.
6. THE CHOSEN ONE (barrier 5)
6yo stallion
Weight: 54kg
Trainer: Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman
Jockey: Damian Lane
Career: 38: 8-6-3
Last 6: 6×3420
Win range: 1400m – 2400m
Earnings: $1,949,671
Odds: 41 / 9.50 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: A genuine stayer who was competitive in 2020. Enjoys a firm track which he should get on Tuesday, and should be competitive again. My question is mark is does he have that killer punch to outclass the top guns?
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7. DELPHI (barrier 3)
5yo stallion
Weight: 53.5kg
Trainer: Anthony and Sam Freedman
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Career: 10: 5-1-0
Last 6: x64210
Win range: 1609m – 2816m
Earnings: $360,841
Odds: 21 / 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Completely upside down in the Caulfield Cup. Will be ridden a lot quieter here over the two miles. Has genuine ability to stay, but needs to settle to be competitive.
8. OCEAN BILLY (barrier 13)
6yo gelding
Weight: 53.5kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Damien Thornton
Career: 32: 10-1-2
Last 6: 0x5059
Win range: 1400m – 3200m
Earnings: $326,452
Odds: 81 / 19 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Hopefully suited better over the two miles, but I’ve not seen enough on paper to be a top-three finisher in this field.
9. SELINO (barrier 24)
6yo gelding
Weight: 53.5kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Ron Stewart
Career: 20: 3-5-2
Last 6: 1×0840
Win range: 2815m – 3328m
Earnings: $1,481,470
Odds: 61 / 13 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Genuine two-miler. Won a Sydney Cup, but rises 3kg on that win. Possible top-10 finisher.
10. JOHNNY GET ANGRY (barrier 22)
4yo gelding
Weight: 53kg
Trainer: Denis Pagan
Jockey: Lachlan King (a)
Career: 11: 1-1-2
Last 6: 1×0090
Win range: 2500m
Earnings: $1,268,675
Odds: 126 / 26 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Form leading in has been horrible, after success in last year’s VRC Derby. All reports on trackwork have been good, but hasn’t been able to convert into race form this preparation.
11. KNIGHTS ORDER (barrier 9)
7yo gelding
Weight: 53kg
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott
Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse
Career: 20: 7-0-2
Last 6: 1×9097
Win range: 1990m – 3200m
Earnings: $467,501
Odds: 126 / 26 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Will be trained and hard-fit to run two miles. The question mark whether there’s enough class to run against the top shelf in a Melbourne Cup.
12. PERSAN (barrier 11)
5yo gelding
Weight: 53kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Jockey: Luke Currie
Career: 27: 7-5-3
Last 6: 44×373
Win range: 1600m – 2510m
Earnings: $1,404,721
Odds: 26 / 6 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Lovely even build-up to this year’s Melbourne Cup after a competitive effort in 2020. Expect him to be around the mark again in this year’s version of the race.
13. CARIF (barrier 8)
6yo gelding
Weight: 52.5kg
Trainer: Peter and Paul Snowden
Jockey: Blaike McDougall
Career: 37: 3-8-1
Last 6: 2×4747
Win range: 1850m – 3200m
Earnings: $730,285
Odds: 151 / 31 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Isn’t bringing a form line into this race that I think gives him a genuine chance.
14. MASTER OF WINE (barrier 6)
7yo gelding
Weight: 52.5kg
Trainer: Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes
Jockey: Fred Kersley
Career: 28: 5-5-4
Last 6: x00030
Win range: 1400m – 2400m
Earnings: $900,309
Odds: 101 / 23 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Can mix his form, but is showing a little more dash this preparation than past. If he gets it right on the day can run a competitive race.
15. PONDUS (barrier 1)
6yo gelding
Weight: 52.5kg
Trainer: Robert Hickmott
Jockey: Rachel King
Career: 19: 3-7-1
Last 6: 722×54
Win range: 2002m – 2389m
Earnings: $336,109
Odds: 26 / 6 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: On the surface has been a little disappointing since arriving from Ireland. May appreciate being ridden a little quieter, and if so may compete for a top-10 finish.
16. GRAND PROMENADE (barrier 21)
6yo gelding
Weight: 52kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Career: 19: 8-4-2
Last 6: 211251
Win range: 1700m – 2600m
Earnings: $1,009,800
Odds: 17 / 4.60 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Lovely spaced-out preparation leading into this Melbourne Cup. In the hands of very astute distance trainers. Expect him to run to the best of his abilities on Tuesday, which could generate a top-five finish.
17. MIAMI BOUND (barrier 17)
5yo mare
Weight: 52kg
Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Patrick Moloney
Career: 26: 5-0-5
Last 6: 3×0095
Win range: 1400m – 2500m
Earnings: $1,672,200
Odds: 151 / 31 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Best form over her career has been on rain-effected ground, which it doesn’t appear she is going to get to suit on Tuesday. A genuine stayer who won last year’s Moonee Valley Cup. Track conditions will be her biggest detractor.
18. PORT GUILLAUME (barrier 23)
5yo gelding
Weight: 52kg
Trainer: Ben and JD Hayes
Jockey: Harry Coffey
Career: 10: 4-0-0
Last 6: 0x0600
Win range: 2000m – 2500m
Earnings: $308,688
Odds: 126 / 26 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Been mixing his riding tactics this preparation to figure out what best suits. Ridden quietly will give him his best chance of staying the two miles. If so, a top-10 finish could then be his best prospect if he gets it right.
19. SHE’S IDEEL (barrier 20)
6yo mare
Weight: 52kg
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Career: 25: 6-6-5
Last 6: x37197
Win range: 1550m – 2400m
Earnings: $1,101,075
Odds: 101 / 23 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Her last two starts on the surface have been disappointing after some promising Sydney form. She’s a question mark at the two miles, and the barrier draw yet another challenge.
20. FUTURE SCORE (scratched)
7yo gelding
Weight: 51.5kg
Trainer: Matt Cumani
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Career: 22: 6-2-4
Last 6: 33×086
Win range: 1600m – 2600m
Earnings: $565,381
21. TRALEE ROSE (barrier 12)
5yo mare
Weight: 51kg
Trainer: Symon Wilde
Jockey: Dean Holland
Career: 15: 6-4-2
Last 6: 4×3321
Win range: 1700m – 2800m
Earnings: $744,725
Odds: 16/4.40 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Genuine top-three contender. Two miles should be to her benefit, and the stable are in great form. Far from the worst.
22. FLOATING ARTIST (barrier 10)
6yo gelding
Weight: 50kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Jockey: Teodore Nugent
Career: 15: 5-2-1
Last 6: 011132
Win range: 1600m – 2406m
Earnings: $479,018
Odds: 13 / 3.80 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: There have been big raps on this fellow right throughout the build-up to this Melbourne Cup. Stable are very happy to have him in the field. If he can get the two-mile, with very consistent form leading in, he may surprise.
23. GREAT HOUSE (barrier 7)
5yo gelding
Weight: 50kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Michael Dee
Career: 15: 5-2-3
Last 6: 751551
Win range: 1500m – 2500m
Earnings: $512,990
Odds: 21 / 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: Winner of The Hotham and the final ticket into the race. Genuine stayer. Not sure he has the class to win this race, but a genuine top-10 contender.
24. SIR LUCAN (barrier 18)
4yo stallion
Weight: 50kg
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott
Jockey: Glen Boss
Career: 8: 2-1-0
Last 6: x81248
Win range: 1609m – 2615m
Earnings: $152,926
Odds: 26 / 6 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 4.40pm Monday)
Simon O’Donnell says: May be the surprise packet. His three-year-old European form brings back memories of previous northern hemisphere winners. Big-race rider on board. Could be in the finish.
SIMON O’DONNELL’S MELBOURNE CUP TIP
1st Twilight Payment, 2nd Verry Elleegant, 3rd Tralee Rose, 4th Sir Lucan
How it will play out: I think Twilight Payment will be up towards the front, I don’t think he will necessarily lead because he’s now carrying more weight.
Whatever does lead they will be trying to surge a lot earlier than usual to make it a really tough-run two mile.
It will be interesting, the tactics, because there’s not that European influence here this year. There’s only two overseas-trained horses here in Twilight Payment and Spanish Mission.
There will be enough local horses and local content in our manner of racing that tactically it could be very different, the Melbourne Cup this year.
If it becomes a fit sprint it brings a lot of ours into it – Verry Elleegant for example. Some of those horses with a little more brilliance, it puts them right into the race where it hasn’t taken the edge off them in running, and they’ve still got something to give in that last 600m.
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