Australia’s World Cup campaign isn’t over, but it’s certainly on life support.
Aaron Finch’s men stumbled through pre-tournament warm-up games, and after nearly making a meal of what should have been a routine run chase against South Africa, produced their most impressive T20 performance in some time in an easy win over Sri Lanka.
Things were heading in the right direction – until England gave them a severe wakeup call this morning.
The only silver lining is that the Ashes aren’t decided in 20 over cricket.
Still, it could be worse. England look nailed on for at least one of the two spots in the semis from Group A, but will Australia be joining them?
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The cutthroat nature of this tournament structure means that even one loss could be enough to stop you from reaching the next stage.
Australia play Bangladesh on Thursday night, before they play the West Indies two days later in their final group match.
If Australia win both
A 4-1 record would be enough to get the Aussies through barring one very specific scenario. If England beat Sri Lanka and South Africa beat Bangladesh, England could lose the final match of group play against the Proteas and both would probably pip Australia to the top two spots due to their superior net run rates.
That might sound unlikely, but if England are 4-0 they could rest some players for that final match with a semi-final all but secured.
In all likelihood though, if Australia win out they’ll be through to the final four.
If Australia win one
Here’s where it gets tricky – the heavy nature of Australia’s loss to England means that if South Africa beat Bangladesh convincingly, it would be close to impossible for the Aussies to advance if both teams finish with the same win/loss record.
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A 3-2 finish would probably not be enough – although Bangladesh could do Australia a massive favour with an upset over South Africa on Tuesday.
Also, if both Australia and the Windies are victorious in their next matches, a heavy victory in that final match to either team could be crucial.
If Australia lose both
There’s not much to analyse here – there is no chance Australia will advance if they lose both of their remaining matches.
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