- Week 18 of the NFL season brings speculation about which coaches might be fired on ‘Black Monday.’
- We rank eight coaches on the ‘hot seat,’ with Pete Carroll of the Raiders the most likely to be let go.
- Despite high expectations, several teams are facing uncertain futures.
At a time when a sizable number of NFL coaches are trying to plot a path past the regular season, many more are simply looking to hang on for another year.
The arrival of Week 18 also brings about plenty of speculation about Black Monday, the annual date on which teams that fall short of the postseason begin enacting staff changes. Upheaval is almost a certainty, with the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans having already dismissed their leaders.
But this year’s setup seems to entail a good bit more mystery than that of previous years. With few buzzy names in the assistant coaching ranks – at least among offensive play-callers – might teams exhibit a bit more patience in forging ahead with known entities? Mike Tomlin’s name has drawn the most attention among coaches facing an uncertain future, but reports have indicated an outright firing by the Pittsburgh Steelers isn’t expected as a potential resolution even if the two sides were to split. Meanwhile, while the New York Jets’ Aaron Glenn and Cincinnati Bengals’ Zac Taylor each fell well short of expectations in 2025, neither appears to be at imminent risk of being dismissed – though the coaching cycle routinely produces a surprise or two.
Ahead of Week 18, here’s our final NFL hot seat rankings, leading off with the figure most likely to be let go:
1. Pete Carroll, Las Vegas Raiders
If Carroll had one task to check off in his first season back in the NFL after his one-year absence, it was to establish a baseline level of competence for the Raiders. Maybe that seemed as though it would be aiming low for a coach selected for the NFL’s 2010s All-Decade Team, but that floor wasn’t something Las Vegas could count on in the previous three years. Still, Carroll’s charges have hardly embodied his ‘always compete’ mantra. In taking the pole position for the No. 1 draft pick, the Raiders have made a full-scale reset look inevitable, with almost no silver lining to be seen for the Silver and Black. Carroll was clearly counting on a rapid turnaround, and there’s little point in having the oldest coach in NFL history oversee a much more extensive build than anyone in the organization had prepared for. And with Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza serving as the potential prize for a year of pain, the franchise would serve itself well by instituting the kind of alignment that has long eluded it.
2. Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons
A three-game win streak could help build the case that Morris knows how to guide this group. But the late-season surge also underscores how badly Atlanta has underachieved on the whole. Things aren’t as simple as merely running it back for the Falcons, with quarterback Michael Penix Jr.’s trajectory even more uncertain following his third torn anterior cruciate ligament since the start of his college career. Atlanta has also been dogged by repeated special teams errors, a distinctly bad look for a franchise with minimal margin for error. Arthur Blank has rare patience in the NFL ownership class, but an eighth consecutive losing season – and a postseason drought only exceeded by that of the Jets – could test even the most even-tempered decision-maker.
3. Jonathan Gannon, Arizona Cardinals
It would be easy to cast misfortune as the running theme of this season for Arizona, which is 2-8 in one-score games and became the first team in NFL history to lose three consecutive contests on the final play. And with 22 players on injured reserve, the Cardinals certainly haven’t been able to show what they can do at full strength, particularly offensively. But five of the defeats in the ongoing eight-game losing streak have come by at least 20 points, undermining any sense that this group is on the verge of a breakthrough. Some form of major change feels necessary in the desert, especially given the gulf between expectations and reality for Year 3 of Gannon and general manager Monti Ossenfort’s reign. But Arizona could stop short of making a shift at the top and instead alter its outlook elsewhere on the coaching staff and at quarterback, where Kyler Murray’s tenure looks to have run its course.
4. Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns
In a vacuum, a coach with a 7-26 record the last two seasons typically would find himself atop this list rather than placed in the middle. But context matters when evaluating Stefanski, who was hardly set up to succeed this year. That dynamic was particularly evident behind center, with the coach cycling a trio of starting options that constituted the league’s worst collection of passing talent. Still smarting from the ill-fated Deshaun Watson trade, Cleveland set itself up for a 2026 resurgence by dealing back to earn another first-round draft pick this upcoming spring. Stefanski aided that effort by bringing along one of the league’s most impressive rookie classes, giving a roster starved for young talent something resembling an actual foundation. Still, even though he ceded play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, the two-time Coach of the Year is ultimately still responsible for an attack that ranks 31st in scoring. A reprieve would be entirely reasonable given the task facing Stefanski this season, but it can’t be guaranteed.
5. John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens
An unceremonious end to the season isn’t all that will await the loser of Sunday’s regular-season capper for the AFC North title, as either Tomlin or Harbaugh will surely face a barrage of questions about the future after falling short of the playoffs. Ending the second-longest tenure of any active coach is no trivial matter, as Harbaugh has a Lombardi Trophy to his résumé and is just one year removed from coming up short in the AFC championship game. Still, the Ravens were often responsible for their own undoing throughout this season, and Harbaugh did himself no favors with Derrick Henry’s late usage – or lack thereof – in a Week 16 loss to the New England Patriots. Baltimore is at risk of squandering the Kansas City Chiefs’ downfall this season, and the organization needs to pounce on a potential reset for the longtime AFC heavyweight. And two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson might benefit from a fresh direction as he prepares to turn 29 and enter a distinct new chapter of his career. Still, extending the season by a week or two likely extinguishes the matter.
6. Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Having lost seven of their last eight games and now needing help to secure a fifth consecutive NFC South title, the Buccaneers are in full tailspin mode. How much of that falls on Bowles depends on your perspective. Incessant injuries have prevented the offense from ever reaching full strength, and Baker Mayfield’s struggles have been so pervasive that the coach himself declared Tampa Bay has ‘got to be better at the quarterback position.’ But Bowles’ defense has also weighed the team down, ranking 26th in yards allowed per play while sporting a troubling overall trend line since the Week 9 bye. Perhaps the organization opts not to pursue drastic action amid the meltdown and Bowles receives a fifth season at the helm. Regardless, the Buccaneers will have to come to terms with the significant step back the franchise has taken in a year in which it had designs on making up ground on the NFC’s elite.
7. Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
With the Packers locked into the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoff field, LaFleur certainly won’t have to fear his Black Monday fate. Of the coaches to make the postseason, however, he might be on he shakiest ground. The Packers’ positioning is unquestionably a disappointment for a franchise that backed an all-in approach with its early-season performance, and LaFleur has had to answer for several costly flops in critical spots. The coach’s standing had already become a point of interest over the summer when new Packers president and CEO Ed Policy did not offer him or general manager Brian Gutekunst an extension. Still, LaFleur has Green Bay in the playoffs for the sixth time in seven years, and season-ending injuries to Micah Parsons, Tucker Kraft and Devonte Wyatt played significant roles in the team’s late woes. Flaming out in the wild-card round might mean Green Bay at least has something to think about.
8. Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins
In following the biggest opening-week embarrassment with Tua Tagovailoa airing out his frustrations with teammates and subsequently apologizing for the finger-pointing, Miami managed to frontload many of its most persistent problems this season. That’s overall a credit to McDaniel, who at least steadied a ship that looked liable to capsize around midseason. Since parting ways with general manager Chris Grier and trading away one of its best players in Jaelan Phillips, the Dolphins have gone 5-2. McDaniel arrived at this point by already laying the groundwork for a post-Tagovailoa transition year in 2026 with a robust run game. Owner Stephen Ross could opt for a fresh start, but McDaniel has made the most of his opportunity to see out the season.