The 2025-26 college basketball season has started off with a bang for some, with some teams like Michigan, Arizona, Iowa State and plenty more asserting themselves as national championship candidates.
But not every team has had such a hot start, and there’s some real concern hovering around as conference play begins. Whether it was stumbling in a Feast Week tournament, losing high-caliber matchups or just looking discombobulated, all the preseason hype is out of the window. Those that had national title aspirations have turned into hoping to make the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, and those that felt like March Madness could have some success may be spending the rest of the regular season on the bubble.
There’s still plenty of time to change course, but which teams are in trouble? And how much should they be panicking? We’ll rank it from 1-5, with one being there’s no need to raise the alarm and five meaning the sky is falling.
Florida
It starts with the defending national champions, a team that has learned it may be tougher to keep the crown. Even with all the departures, the Gators had the look of a team that could make it back to the Final Four, but they haven’t been able to knock down shots. While close, they lost to all three ranked opponents they faced and dropped a Thanksgiving neutral site game to TCU. Even when it has beaten teams like Florida State, Miami and Providence, Florida didn’t look dominant.
Panic rating: 4. The Gators are in for some beatings if they can’t execute against the stiffer SEC competition. The recent emergence of Xaivian Lee has helped restore belief, but that will have to go around the rest of the team that can’t afford more off-nights. However, what doesn’t make it a doomsday scenario is the conference isn’t as top heavy as it was last season, and it’s anyone’s guess who can run the table.
St. John’s
So much for an encore for Rick Pitino, which has gone from starting the season at No. 6 to falling out of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. At 7-4, St John’s is another team that hasn’t been able to win the marquee games — an early loss to Alabama and a 1-2 showing in the Players Era Festival. Then there was the bad outing against a struggling Kentucky team that could have salvaged the nonconference slate. Guard play has been a major issue.
Panic rating: 5. The schedule was set for the Red Storm to stack some Quad 1 wins and it ends December with just one — and four losses. It will get easier in the Big East, but that’s the problem; there aren’t many opportunities to grab those precious victories while having to avoid those pesky Quad 2 and 3 losses. March likely is in the future, but the Red Storm really need to run through the Big East if they want to be considered a top four seed come Selection Sunday.
Kentucky
What a roller coaster it’s been in Lexington. Things got bad when Kentucky lost its fourth game to a ranked opponent, a complete blowout by Gonzaga that had Big Blue Nation booing its team to a dreadful 5-4 start. While it looked like a complete flop was in store, the Wildcats have calmed things down with a three-game win streak with victories over Indiana and St. John’s to have a 1-4 Quad 1 record.
Panic rating: 4. The win over St. John’s prevented this from being a five, giving optimism Kentucky can start clicking with Jayden Quaintance fully healed from injury. What helps is the SEC schedule is backloaded with a comfortable first three weeks to really find a rhythm. However, it has to take care of business early on, or it will be back in trouble once again when February starts, with a chance to be on the bubble.
UCLA
The Bruins were looking to jump up the Big Ten hierarchy with the addition of Donovan Dent, but it’s been a shaky start to the season. UCLA’s two big games against Arizona and Gonzaga ended in defeat and it fell completely flat against California. While it has nine wins, it hasn’t looked impressive in many of them with the patented Mick Cronin defense not looking sharp, resulting in close wins against even mid-majors.
Panic rating: 5. With a 1-4 Quad 1 record and no quality win against a projected tournament team, UCLA needs to tighten up and knock down those at the top of the Big Ten, which is easier said than done. The offense has been shooting the ball well, but it won’t matter if the defense doesn’t follow suit to put a complete game together. Not a great position teetering on the bubble.
Arkansas
John Calipari’s squad has shown flashes of greatness but hasn’t fully met the expectations just yet. Arkansas has held its own against top 10 teams in Michigan State, Duke and Houston, they just resulted in losses. It wasn’t all bad, with the Razorbacks getting a resounding win against Louisville and a strong second half against Texas Tech. It’s all come with freshman Darius Acuff Jr. playing exceptionally well.
Panic rating: 2. Despite a 2-3 Quad 1 start, there’s plenty to like about Arkansas’ chances when the calendar flips. The offense is more than capable of shooting teams out of the building and competing with elite squads. The Razorbacks don’t scream Final Four candidate, but they have the look of a team that can make it to the second weekend of the Big Dance again.
Alabama
Another year of Alabama having a premier offense that lights up the scoreboard; it just hasn’t been able to keep that up against great teams. The Crimson Tide had one of the most difficult starts and navigated it well with wins over St. John’s and Illinois with a loss to Purdue in between, but it looked really bad in the big matchups since with blowout losses to Gonzaga and Arizona.
Panic rating: 1. Despite the really bad outings in the losses, Alabama looks like it can really take command of the SEC. The Quad 1 opportunities left look more than manageable to build the resume, and the Crimson Tide have a great shot of not having any bad marks to hurt its chances of being able to play close to home in the tournament.
Illinois
After starting the season 4-0, Illinois has had some bumps against some ranked competition and has gone 4-3 since. The losses came against Alabama, Connecticut and upstart Nebraska. Brad Underwood’s team has victories against Texas Tech and Tennessee.
Panic rating: 2. The mixed results recently have come with some major wins, and it really hinges on how Illinois does defensively. It’s a tough night when it can’t contain opponents, but it hasn’t been a glaring issue, rather coming in small waves. Illinois appears to have a good grip on itself and set itself up for a strong January.
Tennessee
Just like Kentucky, times were tough when the Volunteers went on a three-game skid. What was confusing was it came off a tremendous win against Houston, as it was followed with a loss to Kansas, a really bad result at Syracuse and then a defeat from Illinois. It was salvaged when Tennessee dominated at home against Louisville.
Panic rating: 3. There should be some concern for the Volunteers cause it’s been exposed. It’s been heavily reliant on Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament, and if the guards aren’t executing, the rest of the offense gets lost. The veteran Gillespie and five-star freshman Ament should find a consistent flow with more games together, but you can’t fully trust it yet.
Auburn
It was going to be impossible to replicate the success of last season, especially with Bruce Pearl leaving the program to his son, Steven. It didn’t help scheduling four teams that have or had a case to be No. 1 this season. The Tigers nearly beat Houston in November, but have looked bad against other premier teams in Michigan, Arizona and Purdue, losing to those three by an average of 29 points. A win over St. John’s in Las Vegas is the only good win on the resume, as victories against NC State and Oregon lost some luster.
Panic rating: 5. The recent losses have taken a ton of hope of what Steven Pearl could do in his first season in charge. Yes, the schedule was extremely difficult, but the Tigers looking non-competitive in most of those matchups is a troubling sign. To add insult to injury, leader Tahaad Pettiford was injured against Purdue, now his health is a big concern. Auburn is No. 43 in the NET rankings, a dangerous spot for a team that likely will be fighting for an at-large consideration.
NC State
The hype of Will Wade’s arrival to Raleigh has died down with NC State’s rather ordinary start to the season. It’s 5-4 since starting the season with four straight wins, and they have some bad outings against Texas and Seton Hall in Maui. The losses to Auburn and Kansas make sense, but the best win so far is against Boise State, and the Wolfpack have a 3-4 record against Quad 1 and 2 opponents.
Panic rating: 4. Wade will gladly tell you himself this rating should be a five after his ‘kindergarten’s over’ rant he laid out on his team, but it’s not to that level just yet. However, it can soon get there. While it doesn’t really own any impressive wins, there are prime chances in ACC play that NC State should be able to take. But if NC State doesn’t start with at least six or seven conference wins by the end of January, it will be in real trouble and be on the bubble.