The 2022 Six Nations shapes as one of the most hotly contested and intriguing tournaments in recent history.
That outlook is underlined by the fact that Wales, the defending champions, are being tipped by bookmakers to finish second last.
France go in as favourites on the back of their stirring 40-25 win over New Zealand in November and interest in rugby is surging as they prepare to host the World Cup next year.
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Ireland, who also upset the All Blacks in November, are tipped as genuine threats after adding more attacking strings to their bow while Eddie Jones’ England will look to wonderkid Marcus Smith to pull the strings in the absence of injured captain Owen Farrell.
The opening round of games this weekend feature Ireland vs Wales, Scotland vs England and France vs Italy – all live and exclusive on Stan Sport.
“It’s going to be one of the most interesting and even Six Nations of the modern era,” said Cheika, World Rugby’s coach of the year in 2015 and now a Stan Sport analyst.
“Everyone’s on the move.”
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FRANCE
Coach: Fabien Galthie
Captain: Antoine Dupont
Last year: Runners-up
Championships: 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2010
Cheika’s verdict: France’s tour to Australia was good, even though they didn’t win the series, considering the players they left behind. And their November series was good as well, claiming the All Blacks scalp. They have a lot of depth in a lot of positions as well as high quality. It’s coming together nicely for them.
What they haven’t done is win a championship. So this is a big tournament for them. It’ll be something they’re targeting, to lift a trophy in the leadup to the 2023 World Cup. They were able to get their players some respite from club football last weekend, so they’ve had a chance to freshen up, get some time together and their coaching team has done a good job in getting them ready for their campaign, both physically and technically.
So you’d think they’re going to go into the tournament as favourites but it is going to be very even. They’ll be really eager to lift a trophy in the leadup to 2023.
How France will deal with the favourites tag and the creeping World Cup pressure…
Cheika: That doesn’t seem to be a bother for them. I don’t get the feeling they’re going to fail under the pressure.
I think the depth gives them confidence and they’ve got a strong leadership group. Led by Dupont but they’ve had three or four different captains over the last little bit who have filled in and done very well. So I don’t think that’s going to be in play for them. The New Zealand game would have been huge for them last year, to give them that confidence they can come together in the clutch moments.
It’s now just a matter of getting it done. It’s going to be a tight competition. Their player depth is really quite a strength, shown by the high quality players that they’ll leave out of the team once it’s selected.
IRELAND
Coach: Andy Farrell
Captain: Jonathan Sexton
Last year: Third
Championships: 2009, 2014, 2015, 2018
Cheika’s verdict: I’m probably biased but I think what’s been happening at Leinster has kept the Irish machine driving. It’s lifted the standard around the other teams as well, Ulster have stepped up and are playing some good rugby as well.
The core of the group all seems to be from Leinster so they’re playing off that commonality. They know each other, they know how to play, it’s a very simple game plan and there’s something about their game that can really frustrate opposition.
Because they don’t make a lot of errors, so they’re able to control the game. And then when they play their more expansive rugby, which they’ve sort of lurched into at different times in the past season – they’ve played some really good rugby – it’s off the back of having control of the game and wearing the opposition down.
And from there good things can happen. And of course they’ve got great depth and good, strong leadership. Jonathan Sexton and a crew of players, (Peter) O’Mahony from Munster, a whole bunch of young backrowers coming through.
They’ve got a great chance in the tournament. They’ve really got an advantage in the fact they’re very linked in together because of the Leinster connection that runs through the core of the team. And the ability to play a simple game plan and the confidence to open up when they think the time is right. Good decision making which comes from having an experienced group of leaders.
ENGLAND
Coach: Eddie Jones
Captain: Courtney Lawes
Last year: Fifth
Championships: 2000, 2001, 2003, 2011, 2016, 2017, 2020
Cheika’s verdict: Eddie Jones has played it nicely. Eddie’s got four or five World Cup campaigns of experience so he’s bringing players through at exactly the right time and he’s done that with the current group.
You’re seeing new names pop up and with the temptation that he could have kept going with those players who are older. He could have kept going with those players and tried to get them through but he made the hard decision and he’s brought a lot of young players in, got them game time over the autumn and with pretty good success. They’re very hard to beat, England.
They’ve got good finishers, a strong pack obviously and they can still play their traditional game but they’ve also got speed on the edges and a really clear way of playing. And now with Marcus Smith a little bit of X-factor as well, a bit more X-factor closer into the game.
When he’s together with (injured captain Owen) Farrell it’s a really good combination but whoever he plays with now, next to him, will be another step for him in his evolution. Because he’ll be playing without Farrell this time, who would be his foil, it’ll be interesting to see how he plays his game. But he’s been super consistent through the start of his English career and his club rugby as well.
He’s brought Harlequins home in six of the last seven games with either an assist or scoring it himself, off his hand or off his foot. So he knows how to play the clutch moments and that’s probably a little addition to England that’s going to give them something that other teams haven’t seen from them before, as well as their traditional forward-based game.
On why Smith is the real deal and not a flash in the pan…
Cheika: I thought they should have played him on the Lions tour, before he’d even played for England. I just thought he’s got something a bit different. And it’s not always going to be smooth sailing, it never is. You’ve got to take the ups and downs but I think Eddie’s seen it from way out and has just given him little bites, given him the experience that he needs at different times and now he’s going to give him the challenge to play in the role without Farrell next to him.
He’s been really well managed by the coach and he’s delivering consistently. I don’t like to use those catch phrases, the real deal and all that stuff. I think he’s playing really good rugby and his consistency, for a guy of his age, is excellent and that’s going to put him in good stead. There’ll be a few mistakes along the way like all players but it’s pretty clear to see he’s going to be a serious player.
WALES
Coach: Wayne Pivac
Captain: Dan Biggar
Last year: Champions
Championships: 2005, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2019, 2021
Cheika’s verdict: They’ll be less fancied in this competition this year but you’ve only got to look back at their win over Australia in the autumn. I was surprised at that victory for them because I thought Australia had played some good footy throughout the year and would have won that game.
But they just have a knack of hanging in there. It’s going to be a really interesting situation because they weren’t expected to win the last Six Nations, which they did.
That’s going to put the expectation on. There’ll be an expectation on this Welsh team to deliver and it’s a clutch tournament for them. Australia should be watching too as they have them in their World Cup group. They’ve got strong players, they’ll be missing Alun Wyn Jones who is a talisman for them, a very important player spiritually for them. But they’re gritty and that’s what you’ll see from Wales, gritty performances. They’ll stay in there as long as they can, they’ll kick their goals and they’ll try and hit you when you make a mistake.
A bit like Ireland, keep control of the ball. Not as successfully perhaps but it’s going to be a really important tournament for them. They’ll get some X-factor from some of their young backs that they’re bringing through. That have got genuine pace, Louis Rees-Zammit, there’s a bit of a new generation coming through.
And as long as they get back some of those on-ball forwards, like (Justin) Tipuric, who weren’t there in the autumn, they were missing a lot of players when they beat Australia. So I think that will give them hope but it’s going to be a tough tournament for them because of the expectation. With (Dan) Biggar as captain, they’ve doubled down on how they’ll be playing.
SCOTLAND
Coach: Gregor Townsend
Captain: Stuart Hogg
Last year: Fourth
Championships: None
Cheika’s verdict: They’re definitely on the way up and I think Gregor Townsend has done a really good job over the last couple of years. There are a couple of things that will be really important for Scotland.
Their discipline around the game, they’re really tough and gritty on the ball, their backrowers, and they tend to get penalised a lot. They turn really good positions into really poor ones because of that sometimes, that really good work that they’ve done in the past.
I think that’ll be important for them and of course a lot will revolve around Finn Russell and his ability to both excite with his more adventurous play but also have the balance of putting the team in the right places to be able to compete in what is traditionally a tournament of attrition amongst forwards. A lot will again rest on his shoulders and how he performs. For Finn Russell, he’s really doing well at Racing, he plays a certain style of game there and it’s going to be his ability to flick between the two styles of game that could decide how far the Scots go in this competition.
Where Russell rates in the pecking order of the planet’s best playmakers…
Cheika: I’m not much into ranking guys. He’s the No.1 man for his team and teams play a certain way. The ranking of players is usually decided by the ranking of their teams. We often say the best players are playing for the best teams in the world, like the ones that are ranked one, two, three. So he can ascend to that area if he can get his team up and competing at that level.
On Scotland’s other key weapons…
Cheika: Their strength has always been around their backrow. They’ve got a lot of players that can compete and cause you grief on the ground and I think that will be the area that most teams will be looking at.
How can we get the Scottish backrowers out of the game and their hookers play like backrowers as well. They’ve really got that feel about them and they want to spoil your ball but they’re also very attack-minded now, those players.
Before they might have looked to spoil and not be attack-minded – now they’re looking to spoil but also be attack-minded. Which is the difference for Scotland now, they’re able to score points. And obviously, it’s quite logical, that gets you in games.
ITALY
Coach: Kieran Crowley
Captain: Michele Lamaro
Last year: Sixth
Championships: None
Cheika’s verdict: It just hasn’t developed for them how they wanted to, you know.
They acceded into the Six Nations off the back of a really good generation of players and I think the focus for them would have to be to recreate that same group, to really pay attention to their best players and give them everything they need to become stars in whatever competition they’re playing in.
And maybe get some players playing in the southern hemisphere as well so they can get the full range of experience. I found it really interesting that Tommaso Allan is playing at Harlequins behind Marcus Smith, chose not to go into international footy so that he could play football with Harlequins while Marcus Smith is away.
That’s surprising to me. Italy’s performances are going to play a big part in the championship because it could come down to for and against and it’s about how competitive Italy will be on a given day, against one team, that could decide the championship. I think we realise they can’t win the championship – or they probably won’t – but they will play a huge role in it.
And it will be very important that they perform because there’s more and more talk in the northern hemisphere around a possible tiering system or a change in the format. There’s always talk about South Africa heading up there in that tournament and with all their clubs and players playing in the northern hemisphere now.
So it’s really important for them and their future that their performances are strong. I think everyone knows that the victories may not be there but their performances must be strong. They need to find the next Sergio Parisse.
They’re still talking about him but they need to find the next one, the Castrogiovannis, the Parisses, those players, that next generation, they need to create those new guys.
On the future format of the Six Nations and whether Italy has a place…
Cheika: The talk about a global calendar, that’s really important but that stuff is not my business, who is playing in what comps.
I’d love to see Italian rugby prosper. I want to see them do as best they can and all the other countries. But that’s got nothing to do with me.
I’m more interested in watching good footy and seeing those guys get ahead.
On whether the balance of power has now swung in favour of the northern hemisphere…
Cheika: I don’t know about being in anyone’s favour in particular but they’re definitely a real, real threat and they’re multiple threats now.
This has been occurring over the last 10 years or so, as the game’s gone more and more professional, with more and more resources to prepare players and more and more players coming into the system at the top level.
They’re real threats now and especially knowing that they’ve only won the World Cup once, I think this World Cup coming up is going to be a super challenge for the southern hemisphere nations, to keep that domination at that level.
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