There’s two hot chances with the bookmakers heading into Thursday’s VRC Crown Oaks – but there could a major upset brewing in the Group 1 feature.
On the third day of the carnival at Flemington, some of the best fillies from across the country will race over 2500 metres in the time-honoured three-year-old classic.
Treasurethe Moment is set to start favourite after a strong win on Derby day, but according to Sky Racing analyst Marc Ohlmus, one of the outsiders in the race could cause some trouble.
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“It’s going to be a really interesting race,” he told Wide World of Sports’ VRC Oaks preview show.
“It’s kind of been blown out a bit for mine, with the favourite drawing very wide Treasurethe Moment, who was very good in the Wakeful.
“There was a lot to like about the winning margin, along with Powers Of Opal who is second favourite for the Oaks. I’m willing to take those two on – we saw in the Derby a few being really tested at the 2500 metres and I think we’re going to see the same.
“Treasurethe Moment from a wider draw is gonna have to snag right back and has drawn barrier 12. She’s either gonna have to go back or they are gonna have to push the button, go forward and use a lot of petrol early, which I don’t think is going to be ideal.
“The third scenario is that she sits three deep and then she definitely can’t win.
“She is very good and Yulong are winning everything at the moment, but price-related, I’m more than willing to take her on.”
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Instead of the top two hopes from a betting perspective, Ohlmus is eyeing off one roughie in particular who could cause a major upset.
Inevitable Truth – one of just two runners yet to win a race in her career – is rated a $23 chance with TAB but has drawn the inside gate and gets Jye McNeil in the saddle.
“I have been with (Inevitable Truth) since her Oaks trial and even before that actually, I loved her pedigree and she’s actually half to a Sydney Derby winner in Angel Of Truth,” he said.
“I don’t think the 2500 metres is going to be of any concern. I have to stick with her on that basis and you are getting a fantastic price. She is probably going to settle three back the fence and draws barrier one.
“Barriers are all-important for this race, going back through the last 10 editions only two fillies have won from outside barrier seven and I think that’s a really important stat.
“John Sargent has won the Oaks before and always has a good filly and I think this might be his next one.”
Odds courtesy of TAB. Correct as of November 6.
1. Treasurethe Moment (12)
Weight: 56kg
Trainer: Matt Laurie
Jockey: Damian Lane
Career: 6: 4-2-0
Last 6: 1×2111
Earnings: $378,338
Odds: $3.30 / $1.55
2. Too Darn Discreet (3)
Weight: 56kg
Trainer: Dan O’Sullivan
Jockey: Michael Dee
Career: 6: 3-1-0
Last 6: 4×7111
Earnings: $353,225
Odds: $8 / $2.50
3. Harlem Queen (5)
Weight: 56kg
Trainer: Nathan Doyle
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Career: 6: 2-1-1
Last 6: 4×1124
Earnings: $292,100
Odds: $6 / $2.10
4. Rag Queen (4)
Weight: 56kg
Trainer: David Payne
Jockey: Chad Schofield
Career: 7: 1-0-1
Last 6: 6×0747
Earnings: $271,275
Odds: $26 / $6
5. Powers Of Opal (9)
Weight: 56kg
Trainer: John Sargent
Jockey: James McDonald
Career: 7: 1-1-1
Last 6: x43412
Earnings: $138,875
Odds: $3.80 / $1.65
6. Pleasure Artist (6)
Weight: 56kg
Trainer: Craig Williams
Jockey: R & W Freedman
Career: 4: 1-1-0
Last 6: 4125
Earnings: $111,550
Odds: $17 / $4.20
7. Talisay (8)
Weight: 56kg
Trainer: Billy Egan
Jockey: Byron Cozamanis
Career: 10: 2-0-3
Last 6: 641336
Earnings: $105,770
Odds: $31 / $7
8. Femminile (13)
Weight: 56kg
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse
Career: 5: 1-0-1
Last 6: 61×963
Earnings: $87,995
Odds: $19 / $4.60
9. Killcare Beachgirl (2)
Weight: 56kg
Trainer: G Waterhouse & A Bott
Jockey: Tim Clark
Career: 6: 1-0-3
Last 6: 7×3363
Earnings: $87,550
Odds: $31 / $7
10. Noises (11)
Weight: 56kg
Trainer: Brad Widdup
Jockey: Andrew Adkins
Career: 6: 2-2-0
Last 6: x21128
Earnings: $84,375
Odds: $81 / $16
11. Hurry Curry (7)
Weight: 56kg
Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Career: 4: 2-0-0
Last 6: 6115
Earnings: $63,700
Odds: $26 / $6
12. Inevitable Truth (1)
Weight: 56kg
Trainer: John Sargent
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Career: 6: 0-2-0
Last 6: x25244
Earnings: $42,450
Odds: $23 / $5
13. Placid Pearl (14)
Weight: 56kg
Trainer: Matthew Smith
Jockey: Ben Melham
Career: 4: 1-2-0
Last 6: 2421
Earnings: $27,750
Odds: $41 / $9
14. All Kinds Of Folk (10)
Weight: 56kg
Trainer: J & C Ledger
Jockey: Luke Currie
Career: 5: 0-0-1
Last 6: 34489
Earnings: $21,535
Odds: $101 / $18