There are five minutes until the opening bounce when you suddenly realise you have forgotten to submit your office footy tips. You don’t have the time to conduct the 10 hours of research your football-mad co-workers do each week, but you’re competitive-natured and enjoy an occasional flutter.
You need a plan of attack that is quick and easy. So, what is the best approach?
According to Champion Data, by basing your tips purely on data and odds you can enjoy significant success without having to do loads of complex footy analysis yourself.
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Here are a few simple indicators you can apply to your footy tipping to achieve fool-proof results.
Believe in home-ground advantage
“When in doubt, always go for the home team,” Champion Data AFL analyst Jacob Wilson says.
“A home team will win 60 per cent of the time, while a team that is travelling interstate will only win 30 per cent of the time.
“Those are two very basic rules that, when unsure, you can always use as a very simple tiebreaker.”
Wilson also warns of boosted odds for three teams when playing at home: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Brisbane at the Gabba and Richmond at the MCG.
“Those three specific teams at those three specific venues would almost be tips you can make at the start of the year and just lock away,” Wilson said.
Experience pays dividends
Another guide that holds up convincingly is increased age and experience.
“Again, if you’re in a 50-50 scenario where you’re not sure who to back, go for the team that has more age or experience behind them,” Wilson said.
“Teams with a bit more experience win 60 per cent of the time in matches.”
Data via Draft Guru
Average age – Geelong (25.7 years), West Coast (25.3 years), Richmond (25.1 years), Western Bulldogs (25.0 years), Port Adelaide (24.8 years), St Kilda (24.8 years), Sydney (24.7 years), Melbourne (24.5 years), Brisbane (24.5 years), GWS (24.4 years), Carlton (24.2 years), Essendon (24.2 years), Collingwood (24.1 years), Fremantle (24.1 years), Gold Coast (23.9 years), Hawthorn (23.8 years), North Melbourne (23.5 years), Adelaide (23.4 years).
Average experience – Geelong (96.6 games), West Coast (89.2 games), Richmond (80.6 games), Port Adelaide (74.7 games), Western Bulldogs (72.4 games), St Kilda (71.9 games), Melbourne (71.4 games), Sydney (71.2 games), Brisbane (67.9 games), Collingwood (62.5 games), Hawthorn (61.3 games), Fremantle (60.1 games), GWS (60.0 games), Carlton (60.0 games), Essendon (56.8), North Melbourne (55.0 games), Gold Coast (53.3 games), Adelaide (46.7 games).
Close results are not always indicative of future results
“Don’t get overly excited by tips you get right if the game was close,” Wilson said.
“At that point, it wasn’t about your tipping; it was just a bit of luck.”
As someone who captures data from AFL matches for a living, Wilson understands as well as anyone why teams lose.
Because of this, he acknowledges that sometimes a team succumbs because of misfortune.
“Don’t write a team off just because they are getting losses; actually look behind to the substance of it,” Wilson said.
“An unlucky loss could just as easily be a lucky win.”
Are you a pessimist or an optimist?
According to Wilson, there are two types of people when it comes to tipping as a supporter: the pessimist and the optimist.
The pessimist always backs against their team because they think their side will lose and, if so, they’ll still have a ‘win’.
Whereas the optimist always believes their team will win, so they don’t see any need in tipping against their side.
“It depends what kind of person you are,” Wilson said.
“If you’re an optimist, back your team in. If you’re a pessimist, don’t.
“I’d rather be cheering doubly as hard for my team than cheering against them in the back of my mind.”
Something different for season 2022
For your football-mad co-workers, there are also more specific trends that may influence outcomes this footy season.
“One season is a pretty small sample size, but last year, being a really strong possession team, so displaying a really strong contested game, had greater influence over match results than in previous seasons,” Wilson said.
“Typically, you would see a team who wins the contested possessions win about 70 per cent of the time. But last year we saw that number jump up to about 76 to 77 per cent.
“We also saw a similar jump in if you won clearances and if you won the hard-ball gets, so it felt like last year for whatever reason those contested teams had greater success.
“If that trend continues, teams with strong stoppage games and strong contested games should see greater success in 2022.”
You have to be in it to win it
The reality of competitive sport is there will always be some match-ups that are highly unlikely to win. However, fortunately for punters, the AFL in general is an even competition when compared to other team-based sports around the globe.
“There is very rarely a situation where a team has less than a 10 per cent chance of winning,” Wilson says.
“So you’re always a chance – even if you are the underdog – because the league is so even.”